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The Hype Cycle Factor
Category: InternetThe graph below is know as a “Hype Cycle“. It was introduced by Gartner Research. The hype cycle represents adoption and business application of technologies. Gartner has used hype cycles to characterize the hype and inevitable disappointment that almost always happens with the introduction of new technology.
A certain amount of hype always accompanies new technological developments. This is when everyone is talking about a new product, but no one is actually using it for greater productivity.
When shown graphically, a hype cycle initially climbs steeply as more and more people pay “attention” to the new technology. But the curve drops just as steeply once public interest wanes, even though the new technology has still not even been employed productively.
The 5 Phases of a “Hype Cycle” are:
1. “Technology Trigger“ The first phase is the breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press coverage and interest.
2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations“ In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations.
3. “Trough of Disillusionment“ Next the new technology enters the “trough of disillusionment” because it fails to meet unrealistic expectations.
4. “Slope of Enlightenment“ Even though the technology has lost its popularity with the press, some continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to find when the benefits and practical applications of the technology.
5. “Plateau of Productivity” The technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” when the benefits become widely demonstrated and accepted.
Once we realize that there is a common pattern to the hype that surrounds new technologies, we realize that we are just now in the midst of the long-term effects that the internet is having on our lives.
Does Social Networking Technology Fit into this Hype Cycle Theory? The Gartner Hype Cycle Theory has been around since 1995. While much of the technological breakthroughs that have happened since then do in fact fit the “Hype Cycle Theory” its application to the emergence of Social Networking may be in question for the following reasons.
1. The adoption curve of social networking is predicted to have a much longer cycle than previous technological breakthroughs because of the nature of the medium
2. The dynamics that evoke human relations is not a technological factor, it is psychological. Social Networking Technology has provided the means to significantly influence the dynamics of human relations by providing reach and richness features. Does the hype cycle apply to human relations?
3. The “Hype Cycle” Theory may or may not apply to social networking based on advances in productivity enabling tools than will impact both personal and business advances
4. Once Social Networking technology provides a pathway to creating economic gains for individuals and businesses it will then ignite a new hype cycle which will carry technology and relations to a new level of breakthrough application
5. There are numerous other cultural, political, economic, psychological, technological and spiritual factors that is advancing us to enter a new era of Relationships and subsequently a Relationship Economy. These combined factors are converging faster that any other previous paradigm shifts and subsequently the “tide” will lift all boats and change many past theories.
Much more on this cycle and the related factors later. For now the overriding issues at hand for everyone is whether the next shift will actual add value to us in terms of gaining time, economic value and productivity. These are the three factors that will usher in the Relationship Economy.
What say you?
Jay is one of the few really deep-thinkers about both the socio-cultural implications of social networking as well as the practical business application across a range of industries and sizes of business. Jay challenges me to “up my game”.” July 21, 2007 Scott Allen, Coauthor, “The Virtual Handshake: Opening Doors and Closing Deals Online”, http://www.TheVirtualHandshake.com
Mr. Deragon is consider one of the leading experts in the emerging market of social networking market. He has studied numerous platforms, features, functions and the markets behavior. His analysis and findings conclude that this space has tremendous potential for individuals, companies and entire industries. There is an art and science to social networking that requires constant learning as the market matures. To read more about my discoveries go to http://www.relationship-economy.com
Mr. Deragon has executive leadership experience in numerous industries and has built and sold four companies from a wireless media firm, a consulting practice, a training company and an insurance services firm.
